Thursday, March 28, 2013

Meanwhile, European Credit Traders send another Warning Shot...


U.S. stock market indices have so far been holding up like there was a fully automated "constant bid" algorithm active in the S&P500 futures contract (or is there...?).  The Eurostoxx stock market index was also just consolidating sideways, at best, for the last couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, European credit traders are not so enthusiastic and have started to change their mind regarding  European financials institutions credit quality - a development that had already started on January 11 (!) and has accelerated over the last couple of days:



(the Red Line is the Inverse of the Markit ITraxx European Financials Subordinated Debt CDS Spread - or in plain English: the insurance premium that one has to pay to insure against default of the average European bank or insurance company, here shown inverted (i.e., the premium has shot up considerably over the last days).

As Emerging Markets remain rather weak, China broke its medium-term uptrend and sold off by 2.5% today, the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index just missed its forecasted value by a wide margin, and base metals such as Copper erode further, we stay "c&c" - concerned & cautious....

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Can Developed Markets decouple from Emerging Markets...?


The original question used to be "can Emerging Markets really decouple from Developed Markets?".

This time around, it looks more like Emerging Market stocks along with commodities, freight rates and purchasing manager indices are "smelling" another round of deceleration in the world economy, while those G7 markets that are supported by central banks' psychological and/or money-printing operations seem to have decoupled from reality....


So when the supposed growth engines of the world economy apparently fail to deliver their growth promise, we
reiterate our warning from February:  Watch out below.

Developed markets are strongly overbought, and sentiment is maximum bullish, according to many of the surveys that we track. So is everybody on board now for a good-sized  reversal to the downside?



Risk-off - Reality on ...?


What do Emerging Market Stock Indices know that we don't ?